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Fall 2016 Predictions and Results

Fall 2016, being extremely mild and pleasant, in the midwest this period has turned out to be one of the warmest regions, until the week of Thanksgiving, on November 24th, when the region saw 1 to 2 inches of snow on thanksgiving eve.  The snow didn’t stay, with 40 to 50 degree temperatures banking around sunday to monday, during the last week of November, 2016.  Amazing warmth, in the Twin Cities in Minnesota, on November 28th, with highs in the 50s.   This trend was ended promptly with cooler temperatures on the day of December 1st, and it will be chased away, with cold temperatures until Christimas Day.

Polar Ice and Fall 2016 Warmth

Fall 2016
Thanks to the Updraft Blog

The polar ice in the northern region of the pole, did not thicken as usual this fall, and in fact, is the smallest circumference ever recorded.  Due to the global ocean warmth, record high temperatures around the northern pole, and the La Nina effect in the southern pacific ocean, the cataclysm of these three warm events has created another event, very little polar ice around the southern pole as well.  Huge normally frozen areas, larger than most land masses in the northern region have melted.  The warm temperatures are proving to  be quite alarming, so having a cold spell exist and stay put in the midwest is a good thing.

Fall 2016 2nd warmest for Minnesota, Warmest for 5 state region

Normal highs in Minnesota in November are around freezing, 32 degrees.  Recorded highs ranged from 65 to 22 degrees, marking a fall that did not seem to follow normal patterns of La Nina.  This information could mean, that the La Lina kept the region cooler than an El Nino Year, or even a regular sea temperature year…this could be a good indication of how much these events change temperatures vs. precipitation.

Fall 2016 Soil Temperature

In the midwest, the soil temperature did not hit freezing until December 5th, and was averaging around 38 to 40 degrees until December 1st.  The soil thoroughly froze to a depth of 5 inches on December 8th, with the average high air temperature of 20 degrees.  The advance of a strong low across the region has ushered in the winter weather, which will stick around now until the end of December.  Most often, once the soil has frozen to the 5-6 inch depth, the cooler average temperature is more common;  a soil temperature is often a good indicator of snow vs. rain in a 3 day model forecast.

With the advance of the next system out of the northwest, the midwest will see 6 inches of snow over the next 48 hours, with most of that, sticking around until another front shows itself around December 18th.  The chance of a white christmas are very good for the midwest, and most of the country in 2016.


El Nino Winter 2015 Predictions

By all accounts, El Nino Winter 2015 is predicted to be warm and dry for northern plains, and cool and wet for areas of the south and southeast.  This trend is similar to the winters of 1997-1998 and even earlier of 1975-1976.  With the advent of meteorology and charting of oceanic temperatures, we have recently… Continue Reading

Summer 2015 Dry West Mild Elsewhere

The summer of 2015 is showing signs of being a hot and wet season for the western parts of the United States, and the midwest should be normal in temperatures, with frequent rain.  The pattern is being setup by an el Nino in the pacific. This pattern is not a regular occurrence, but recently, the… Continue Reading

Spring Yields Warmer Drier Weather

The weather is changing from a ever moving and quick jet stream, to a long term two month stationary front that promises a warmer drier spring for most of the nation.  When we look at past recent trends, the last 360 months have been warmer, and with more of a pattern on longevity.  We have… Continue Reading